Forecasting and scenario policy

Forecast categories

We distinguish:

• official forecast;
• institutional forecast;
• market expectation;
• consensus estimate;
• model projection;
• scenario;
• editorial inference;
• nowcast.

A scenario is not relabeled as a forecast, and a forecast is never described as observed data.

Required forecast fields

Every published forecast includes forecaster, publication, release date, indicator, geography, horizon, value, unit, record type, scenario label where applicable, assumptions, direct source and previous comparable vintage.

Comparison

Forecasts from different institutions remain separate. We do not average them into a consensus unless a published method reconciles coverage, weights, horizons and scenario types.

Revisions

Prior forecasts remain visible. A new vintage creates a revision record. A forecast change may reflect new observed data, revisions, policy assumptions, commodity paths, exchange rates, model changes or judgment; we identify only reasons supported by the source or clearly label our inference.

Accuracy

Accuracy is evaluated by horizon and vintage against a defined outcome vintage. An advance estimate and a later benchmark-revised outcome are different evaluation targets. Large unforeseen shocks are documented but do not automatically excuse every error.

Our own forecasts

At launch, WorldEconomy.news does not publish proprietary macroeconomic point forecasts. Any later model must have a public method, training/estimation period, data rights, uncertainty intervals, backtests, failure conditions and named human oversight.

Investment use

Forecast coverage is informational and not individualized investment advice.